Hazard Unknowns / Human Uncertainties quickly elicits what component of the current avalanche hazard one is most uncertain about.
We use many different descriptors to describe avalanche hazards. These include avalanche problem type, location, likelihood of triggering, spatial distribution, and destructive size. Typically, we know little or nothing about one of these when assessing the hazard. Identifying which of these has the most unknowns keeps the perspective focused on where there must be the largest margin for error, misstep, or mistake.
Instability test results that are reactive or unreactive are on a similar level of uncertainty theoretically. When conditions or results are touchy, uncertainty is typically much lower. Stubborn (and planar) test results leave the observer with the highest uncertainty.
The spatial density and distribution of an avalanche problem and ease of finding evidence (spatial distribution) often contribute to hazard uncertainty. Increased uncertainty may be present when evidence is rare and hard to find, e.g., isolated. Some avalanche problem types are associated with higher hazard uncertainty than others. The hazard uncertainty often increases as expected destructive size increases (e.g, 30 cm versus 50 cm persistent slab or “what may lead to release in that 75 cm storm slab?”).
