HUCKEM expands on “acceptable uncertainty” described in earlier articles[i]. In summary, during avalanche risk management, we first acknowledge uncertainty’s presence, then reduce it by changing the hazard with explosives, changing one’s exposure in space and or time, or changing the objective to one unaffected by the uncertainties. The final steps include communicating the irreducible uncertainty and embedding it in decisions. This is where the personally applied risk assessment question of “Is the uncertainty acceptable?” comes into play. It is the final filter before acting. Asking the question as part of on-site decisions will help limit treacherous biases associated with the affect heuristic. It goes a long way towards removing the ego and emotion from the decision process.
HUCKEM was conceived by Steve Conger, a career avalanche professional with operational, technical, and academic experience and training gained in Canada and the US as an avalanche educator, forecaster, and consulting scientist. Described by his team leader during his rookie ski patrol season as having an itchy, swelling brain when it came to snow, Steve has endeavored over the past three-plus decades to contribute tools, methods, and understanding to our avalanche craft.
[i] Conger, S., 2016, Acceptable Uncertainty, the Avalanche Review, v34-4, April 2016